The Bank of Ghana (BoG) warned on Monday that the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran could weaken Ghana’s improving inflation outlook by pushing up oil prices and tightening global financial conditions, as policymakers meet ahead of a scheduled interest-rate decision on March 18.
Speaking at the opening of the central bank’s monetary policy committee meeting, Governor Johnson Asiama said the external shock risked disrupting the disinflation trend that began in mid-2025, even as higher global gold prices could offer some offset for the country’s export earnings.
Ghana inflation outlook faces oil-price and financing risks
Asiama said the conflict created a “live external threat” to Ghana’s disinflation trajectory, citing the potential impact of higher energy costs and tighter global financing conditions on domestic prices and economic activity.
He said the committee’s communication after its decision should reflect both the progress recorded so far and the risks still present.
Bank of Ghana has cut rates as inflation cooled
Ghana’s central bank has reduced borrowing costs several times since July 2025 as inflation slowed sharply, including a 250-basis-point cut in late January that brought the policy rate to 15.50%, its lowest level in four years.
The BoG has said consumer inflation fell to 5.4% in December 2025 from a peak of 54.1% in December 2022, moving closer to its target band.
Gold prices seen as a partial cushion for Ghana
Asiama said the same geopolitical uncertainty weighing on oil markets has also supported global gold prices, which could help Ghana, Africa’s largest gold producer.
Ghana has leaned heavily on gold earnings as part of its economic stabilisation efforts, with gold export receipts reported to have nearly doubled in 2025 to about $20 billion from $10.3 billion in 2024, supporting an improvement in the current account.
